The year 2021 was largely shaped by the lingering effects of the 2020 post-election crisis, as the Lukashenko regime sought to retaliate with counter-revolutionary measures. The intensified repression against civil society resulted in severe sanctions from Western countries. Throughout 2022, the regime was able to restore manageability and a basic efficiency of state institutions with the help of populist measures and ongoing harsh repression amidst the Russian war in Ukraine.
Economically, Belarus recovered post-COVID-19 in 2021 but faced a recession in 2022 (-4.7%) due to Western sanctions, reinforced after the migration crisis on the Belarusian-European border and the regime’s complicity in the Russian war against Ukraine. Growing isolation from the West prompted deeper integration with Russia.
Western pressure pushed Belarus closer to Moscow, culminating in Lukashenko’s acceptance of the Kremlin’s integration ultimatum in 2021. The military focus emphasized Belarus as a strategic springboard for Russia, providing territory, airspace, and military support.
