Southern and Eastern Africa

Ballot boxes have surfaced glimmers of hope in Southern and Eastern Africa. In South Africa, the African National Congress lost its three-decade monopoly on power in 2024, while Botswana, long regarded as the region’s democratic frontrunner, underwent a peaceful transfer of power following an opposition victory. Mauritius ranks just behind Botswana in political transformation but faces growing concerns about digital surveillance and gradual authoritarian backsliding. By contrast, in the region’s 14 autocracies, elections remain little more than rituals of legitimation or are not held at all, as in Eritrea, where the system has taken on increasingly totalitarian characteristics. Mozambique, following electoral fraud and the violent suppression of youth protests, has joined the ranks of hard-line autocracies. The optimism that accompanied recent political transitions in Zambia and Tanzania has largely faded. Reform efforts have stalled, and governments have become more repressive. Kenya, too, has seen widespread student and youth protests over tax increases, which were met with police violence. South Sudan and Somalia remain failed states mired in civil war.

Economic transformation in the region remains limited. While the BTI 2026 shows stagnation throughout the region, of the 18 countries included in both the BTI 2006 and BTI 2026 editions, only four – Lesotho, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Zimbabwe – have shown measurable progress in socioeconomic development. Lesotho stands out as the region’s top performer, while Mauritius remains the only country classified as undergoing an advanced stage of transformation. Despite a modest post-pandemic recovery and falling inflation rates, progress continues to be hampered by widespread corruption, elite capture of economic resources, weak institutions and fragmented social safety nets. In authoritarian states, private-sector development is further constrained by repression, graft and international isolation. In failed states such as Somalia and South Sudan, as well as in Eritrea and Zimbabwe, catastrophic conditions persist for most of the population.

Governance across the region remains shaped by persistent structural challenges – widespread poverty, undiversified economies, and weak statehood. Anti-corruption efforts remain especially weak. With the exception of Botswana and Mauritius, most countries remain heavily dependent on foreign loans and aid. The looming withdrawal of U.S. development assistance has already had devastating effects.