In the aftermath of the crushed July 2021 protests and amid a deepening socioeconomic crisis, political discourse has continued to harden. Cuba remains a closed system in which civil rights are increasingly restricted, with no prospect of liberalization or democratic transition. Public support for the Díaz-Canel government has eroded. Raúl Castro’s repeated public appearances underscore elite cohesion, while emigration has surged.
The U.S. embargo and additional sanctions continued to weigh heavily. Cuba remained in deep economic crisis, with negative growth in 2023 and 2024 and severe infrastructure decay. A nationwide blackout in October 2024 highlighted decades of underinvestment. Agricultural production reached historic lows due to fuel shortages, lack of inputs and distorted prices, resulting in food scarcity and sharp price increases.
Intensified U.S.–Cuba tensions after Donald Trump began his second term reinforced Havana’s siege narrative, reducing space for dissent and strengthening hard-liners. By late 2024, the government slowed its already inconsistent reform process, reimposed price controls and tightened restrictions on private sector expansion, while seeking closer ties with politically aligned partners.
