West and Central Africa

In West and Central Africa, political trajectories have become increasingly divergent, with democratic progress in some countries contrasted by deepening authoritarian rule in others. The Sahel has been marked by a series of coups that have pushed the regional average score for political transformation to a record low. Autocrats are consolidating their power, often with external backing or through domestic maneuvers, while reform-minded actors have only limited space for political action. Democratic achievements, for instance in Senegal and Ghana, remain under pressure.

Even though there are tendencies of economic stabilization after the pandemic years, the region is stagnating on a generally low level. Additionally, extreme droughts and heatwaves have imposed heavy adaptation costs to global climate change. The withdrawal of the military juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS has further disrupted trade routes and jeopardized food security.

Governance quality, by contrast, has fallen to its lowest level of the last 20 years. The steepest declines occurred in Burkina Faso and Niger, where terrorism, human rights violations and mass displacement have intensified dramatically. Long-standing conflicts, such as in Chad, have further deepened fragile conditions. By contrast, new reform initiatives in Senegal and institutional openings in Gabon stand out as rare exceptions.

The security situation continues to deteriorate, with jihadist groups expanding their activities into Benin, Togo and the Democratic Republic of Congo. At the same time, the retreat of Western actors, particularly France and the US, has created a growing power vacuum increasingly filled by autocracies like Russia, China and Türkiye, which are expanding their political and economic presence. Under these circumstances, processes of democratization must originate from the broad populace.